On the flip side...

The question of how to deal with money is not an easy one. My current question is as follows. Please read and feel free to offer advice.

I have a chunk of $$ in the US. I need it here in the Holy land over the next 6 months and will have to return it, in $$, in 6 months.

Option #1: Move it in chunks exchanging it at the going rate as I need it. The $ to NIS rate is quite low. If it goes up I will get more NIS for my chunk of money. If it falls I get less.
Option #2: Move it all at once. If the $ falls further I'm safe but if it rises I will have a harder time paying back the $$'s in 6 months from now. As a safeguard I can buy an option of currency at the current rate for about 1000 nis. If the rate falls I'm safe and have an easier time returning the $$ but I lose my 1000 nis. If the rate rises, I can still buy $$ at todays rate.

The question is, will the rate rise? And am I missing something with my analysis?