יום שני, מאי 19, 2008

Financial stuffity stuff

The question of how to deal with money is not an easy one. My current question is as follows. Please read and feel free to offer advice.
I have a chunk of $$ in the US. I need it here in the Holy land over the next 6 months and will have to return it, in $$, in 6 months.

Option #1: Move it in chunks exchanging it at the going rate as I need it. The $ to NIS rate is quite low. If it goes up I will get more NIS for my chunk of money. If it falls I get less.
Option #2: Move it all at once. If the $ falls further I'm safe but if it rises I will have a harder time paying back the $$'s in 6 months from now. As a safeguard I can buy an option of currency at the current rate for about 1000 nis. If the rate falls I'm safe and have an easier time returning the $$ but I lose my 1000 nis. If the rate rises, I can still buy $$ at todays rate.

The question is, will the rate rise? And am I missing something with my analysis?